LRCX was ugraded (again);
We are increasing our CY09 capex from down 4.3% to up 10%, aided by easier compares from CY08, the need to upgrade trench DRAM facilities, and potential for capex increases at foundries.
3 months ago it became obvious that certain DRAM makers like Nanya will switch to stack from trench; the "news" provided by CSFB is at least 3 months old in case you follow very closely the details
the BIG thing beside moving from trench to stack is the move to copper because Micron's stack process uses copper;
more and more I start to question the technical competence to connect the dots of certain analysts.
Remember these guys are fully paid ...
regarding foundries: as I always stated TSMC will spend as little while sustaining the business - and it appears business is not too bad at all
To: etchmeister who wrote (5675) 3/5/2008 12:17:05 AM
From: etchmeister
Micron and Nanya beef up on stack DRAM production
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Hans Wu, Taipei; Esther Lam, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 4 March 2008]
Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on DRAM development, including the formation of a joint venture (JV), Micron Technology and Nanya Technology are said will officially sign a contract by April. Industry watchers generally acknowledge the stronger presence of the two companies in the DRAM industry, but also raised concerns about the potential conflict with Inotera Memories, the JV between Nanya and Qimonda that mainly fabricates DRAM on trench technology.
A win-win deal
Marketers commented that Nanya would tie up with Micron on sub-50nm DRAM technology development because it has already linked up with Qimonda on DRAM technology down to 58nm. In contrast to paying a considerable licensing fee to the Qimonda, the sources noted that Nanya enjoys "favorable" terms in the technology licensing deal with Micron.
Despite Micron already being capable of fabricating DRAM on 70nm, Nanya will also inherit Micron's 68nm technology as die size from Micron's 68nm node is equivalent to others' 58nm and the required number of mask layers from Micron's 68nm node is less, meaning that Nanya could produce more memory chips without spending more on new equipment procurement, the sources noted. Nanya is expected to fabricate DRAM on Micron's 68nm process node at its first 12-inch fab (Fab 3) in Taichung, Taiwan the sources detailed.
Responding to market queries about whether additional funding is required for the process conversion, sources at Nanya said its capital expenditure (capex) in 2008 will maintain at NT$40 billion (US$1.2 billion) as no additional budget is required for equipment procurement. Equipment can be shared among trench- and stack-made DRAM as the major difference between these two DRAM architectures is confined to the front end only, the company sources explained.
Regarding R&D cost, the company sources at Nanya also stressed that the company does not have to bear the cost for trench- and stack-made DRAM at the same time, as it will complete R&D works for trench technology development in 2008. For the budget originally alloted for 58nm-and-below process, the fund will be alloted to stack technology instead.
Some marketers commented on the favorable stance that Nanya enjoys in this JV in contrast to its partnership with Qimonda. Nanya and Micron regard each other as a close ally to boost market share, the marketers stressed. In the Qimonda partnership, Qimonda is rather defensive over its technology, as evident in the cautious manner that company staff interacted with Nanya engineers sent to Qimonda's Germany fabs for training.
In addition, Qimonda also charges a relatively high amount for licensing, the marketers said. Under the partnership terms, Nanya has to pay three licensing fees to Qimonda – one during the technology R&D stage, one during fabrication another when chips are under production.
What's next for Inotera?
Given that Nanya and Qimonda have jointly established Inotera, the ongoing direction of Inotera has drawn attention. Sources at Inotera said the company would strive to ensure the benefit of investors and employees when making decisions, and continue inviting partners with competitive technology and products to better serve customers.
Some marketers expressed concern that the Micron-Nanya JV implies that Nanya will no longer develop sub-58nm process on its own, and that Qimonda will also hold off its development on trench technology, implying that Inotera may be exposed to the risk of lacking a technology backup.
The industry sources noted that Nanya is having intense discussions with Qimonda about the ongoing direction of Inotera to determine which company should take a complete stake in Inotera. The sources at Nanya said there has been no decision yet. Marketers believe that Nanya should keep its ties with Inotera as the entity will have better access to fund raising due to Nanya's ties with the Formosa Plastics Group (FPG). Formosa Sumco Technology, a wafer subsidiary under the FPG, also would backup an Inotera under Nanya control as Inotera could secure cheaper blank wafers from it.
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We are increasing our CY09 capex from down 4.3% to up 10%, aided by easier compares from CY08, the need to upgrade trench DRAM facilities, and potential for capex increases at foundries. |
