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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (1195)	7/2/2008 9:06:32 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) of 3209

Great comments. I'll be watching the charts as well of course. For me it comes down to 3 major themes ST/IT? 1) Where is oil going? That will be the biggest driver imho. Oil still going parabolic and shows no definative signs of ST/IT reversal yet. Back at 120 I expected 150-160 for the year high. Simple EW projections. Now hard to say w/Dollar so close to breaking down further. From an FA perspective I don't think we're that far off from oil tipping the balance into global recession. Probably there already, but as always perception rules reality ST. 2) Everything w/the credit bubble collapsing is very deflationary. At what point will deflation take hold or become a concern. Right now it appears that all eyes are on inflation w/barely a mention of what happens to commodities in a deflationary environment - not to mention stocks. 3) Gold and gold stocks. Could be another fake out, but thus far seems like a powerful move. However, I'm still fearful of pts 1 & 2 as they relate to gold not to mention what happens in a crash/mini crash market event. Thus far this decline has been very orderly. I'll be looking to scale back into SRS again sooner than later most likely as well. Oh, working on the golf game as well. Major commitment w/the lessons in the last year and finally found a good coach. Was a fader/slicer/straight. Now hitting nice draws and using a much shorter/connected swing. Feels effortless when done right. Got to play Pinehurst #2 for the first time this summer. Exceeded my high expectations. Open off the tees, but the greens were heavenly. Had been on the course before for the US open, but playing it is obviously different.

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