<<not a zero sum game. China going up doesn't mean the US going down. That's where Jay goes wrong, he thinks like a video game>>
come on cb ilaine, most unbecoming, for i very specifically noted just a few posts ago that Message 24723158
"... not so much that a collapse of the usd monetary system is a pre-condition for china's return to the natural mean, but that both will happen in the same 3D space ..."
as to video game, something else entirely, and specifically to do with investment Message 24723303
"... The game has no precise rules, changing all the time, allows for no respite, tolerates no quitters, has few winners, and eventually kills all, to the very last man.
The object of the game is to perish well as opposed to miserable.
Oops, announcer saying "Players, get ready, on three, two, ...""
now, about usa and china / row, the current oil situation is interesting, in that (i) energy is still mostly priced in usd, (ii) the world is tiring from usd, (iii) the empire needs external financing but at reasonable cost, (iv) the rest of the world requires affordable energy in own currencyterms, including usa, and yet (v) most of row are fearful of monetary inflation without regret, and so, and usa is fearful of high interest rate
something will break, and soon enough, per simple math and by not very complicated logic
(a) will the world go off of the usd standard now so as to have stable energy pricing
(b) will the fed/officialdom choose to implode usa asset base (i.e. including but not limited to your home equity) in sacrifice for continued external financing on reasonable terms
(c) will the fed/officialdom choose to sacrifice the dollar, and forego external financing, blow up usa energy security, so as to save wastrel home owners and decrepit banking system
(d) will china go insanely focused on developing domestic consumption and infrastructure economy, and force the economy to face inward as well as move westward (rural/inland), while still spending large sums to secure whatever it takes, or
(e) will china print-along with the wastrel to get-along with the wastrel, and risking domestic chaos and an unappetizing end game
my guesses? yes on (a), (c), and (d), timing unknowable, and the possible trip wires could be any of below, singly or in concert, but with a lag:
(i) any attack on iran
(ii) obama actually takes team usa out of iraq
(iii) europe turns away from washington when domestic audience gets democratically fed up with ever rising euro and still rising energy per courtesy of russia
(iv) the japan that can say no says no to usd
in case you are not aware, we are at the next level of the video game now
meaning your home equity will likely be toast by monetary inflation and interest rate increase, your energy cost will inexorably rise relaive to your income statement and balance sheet, and your neighborhood will get progressively more hostile and generally more unpleasant, unless you take action of very decisive nature with alacrity and without hesitation
strategic recommendation: start by borrowing usd and buygold (which would have yielded more than your home stake in the same time span that i had been making the recommendation to specifically you, starting in 2001. the recommended wager's best times are still ahead of us, i suspect.
p.s. just dined on delicious everything at the "xijiao state guest house" ( hotelxijiao.com ) where your friend putin and enemy hu jin tao hang out when the shanghai cooperation orgaization powwows. the location is good, food superb, atmosphere great, environment green with bamboo. all lovely.
p.p.s. you do of course notice that in one cogent message i have knotted together usa, china, russia, middle east, wastrelism, your friend putin, your enemy hu jin tao, neat and tidy japan, your house, my gold, your world view, my frame of reference, teotwawki, dark interregnum (see embedded links)
suggestion: print the message out, so as to better ponder its beauty, appreciate its connectedness, wonder about its meaning, and follow its advice |
