I'm short MCOM at $14.25. I considered shorting it when it was at $5. I consider this recent rally a gift from God. As cool as this product is, in the business world there is simply NO DEMAND for it!
1. IT'S A TOY -- Metricom's client base thus far is made up of techno nerds (seeking the newist techno-gadgets) and college kids (using daddy's coin to play on-line games on campus, during class). Why else would there be such a demand on campuses? What's so freaking critical that a college kid needs instant data transmission? The point is, the ricochet system isn't a business tool -- it's a gadget. It's a toy.
2. IT'S INFRASTRUCTURE CONCEPT IS STUPID -- The "node-every-mile" concept made sense in the 1930's when phones were becoming popular. Worked great for The Waltons. But in the 21st century everything is going to be satellite-driven. Nobody is going to replace 100,000 nodes every time modem speeds ramp up. MCOM's current infrastructure--representing everything they've ever done-- is going to be completely worthess in two years.
3. FAILED ONCE; WILL FAIL AGAIN -- Metricom failed at 28.8. What has changed in their business plan that will make their future any different? NOTHING. Cool concept, no practical use. Management has gotten rich on investors who have become intrigued with the concept of their system. But face it: In 1997, there's still no time-critical need for 99.9999 percent of data transmissions, that can't wait until the taxi pulls over to the curb.
The Ricochet system is expensive and immobile, and if there were any real demand for it, it could be easily duplicated by AT&T or any other major communications carrier for a few pennies a share. Unfortunately, it's not the future of wireless communications, folks. Short it here, and cover at $3 in a year.
Paul Allen, lol. A fool and his money, paying $16 when he could have paid $5. He made more headlines this way, though. Is it ego, or is it investment? Thanks for bailing out a lot of bad investors, Paul :) Share the wealth :) Keep buying MCOM :) |
