There is a presentation on Firethorn in the BREW 2008 presentations.
Once again you can see the how Q has a specific roadmap and timetable for building this out.
But I was thinking back to when I was younger and wishing to be like Warren Buffet. It always rang in the back of my head how actually for tech stocks, sometimes the longer you hold them, the riskier they become due to the competitive and disruptive nature of new technologies. Same thing with Q, we always worry about what is coming next.
Although I would love to invest in tobacco or candy or soft drinks, it's just a little boring and doesn't satisfy much of my intellectual curiosity. And I ain't no Buffett!!
In any case, it occurred to me that with Q moving into services and the buildout of Mediaflo, Brew, and Firethorn, that if done correctly and with a little luck, they have the markings of developing into defendable, entrenched, hard to replicate businesses.
Mediaflo has the potential to become the only Mobile broadcast network that can mass deliver ads tailored to individual preferences, the holy grail of advertising. Brew has the potential to become a formidable network for discovery and and download of content and apps. And Firethorn has the potential to become the clearing house for mobile transactions.
I believe these businessed do not depend as much on innovation once built out. Their value lies in the network effect, their partnerships, and their one of a kind business models. Think Omnitraks, since when have we heard of the latest and greatest with that? Think Visa, they've been around for how many years but when was the latest innovation? But it keeps growing and growing as they add little by litte. So once these businesses get built out and companies sign up, they can become very sticky and exert a toll like effect.
In the Firethorn presentation, the gentleman made the point that Firethorn is not built on patents. It's the network and the software and the execution. He said I think out of all the Patents Qualcomm has, when they bought Firethorn, they got two.
Anyway.. my back of the head thoughts. No wonder Q wants to increase the "value of the information" going over our handsets. When you have a toll bridge to nowhere anyone wants to go.. it's hard to collect. So we will see!!
PS. I work in customer service.. so don't mind me. |
