Radica Message Board - Msg: 2472483

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Non-Tech : Radica

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To: Wayne who wrote (23)	10/17/1997 4:42:00 AM
From: Gary105	of 51

I'm now beginning to think my original conservative assumption of mid teens by earnings is correct (14 - 16+), maybe with a slight bias to the high side as a way of synthesizing both technical and fundamentals. Why? 1. Percentage moves we have seen this past year are not sustainable. Otherwise we go from 13 to 130 over the next year if we extrapolate this year percentage wise - no way. 2. So the best case scenario over the next year is a straight line extrapolation - or 1 1/2 points per month. This sounds optimistic but may be achievable if earnings growth continues, but would imply earnings expectations close to $2 (I use 1 significant figure intentionally) for next year - a stretch but possible. 3. So long term technical analysis is a straight line extrapolation of stock price going back to May - too simple to be true but it fits well with the fundamentals and its working thus far - that would put us in the upper 12's right now and around 16 during earnings release - volatility can result in 1 or 2 points away from these numbers as we have seen. imo, Gary

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