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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: billkirn who wrote (2378)10/17/1997 8:00:00 AM
From: Randy Schmid   of 6136
 
Bill - unfortunately, I'm beginning to think you're right. I've no idea where AGPH will go, but in this market, it would have to have some major shot at upside news to get this downward trend reversed.
European approval seems like the only major possibility. Short term it doesn't help to have all the brokerage houses already at their top recommendations. Price will stabilize if bargain hunters step in, but I don't see that happening when selling seems to be the thing to do.
Merck got seriously punished for being a penny short and with worries that their drugs go off patent in "just" three years to five years gives a snapshot of the market attitude, and MRK wasn't richly priced.
Even positive economic news won't stop the train.

AGPH remains great as a long term investment. I'm beginning to think that playing the short term game is tougher by far. Decisions on the NOV 47.5/55 spread will be made this week or the next. Farther out options, don't know. The time to catch the downtrend with puts or sold calls should be largely past, but AGPH keeps trending down.
I'll get out at about even money, but ouch! At one point the 47.5s were at 102% - should have capped them off with the sale of a higher strike - these so called bull spreads offer protection to the downside.

A rally per billkirn not impossible, but it would seem the stock needs to go lower to be bargain basement. Is the support now at about 45-46?

Best to all,

Randy
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