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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (31366)	7/3/2008 3:59:45 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (2) of 78484

I confess that I am at a loss to understand how all these value guys got so many stocks wrong with their vast experience and cadre of analysts. Reading Einhorn's book is a bit revealing and makes me think I need to be much more rigorous in my own review of information and no longer relying that a position is vetted because a respected value guy owns it. One of his astute comments is that he assumes that the person or entity selling the stock to you probably knows a lot more about the stock than you do as they have owned it awhile, so if they are selling you need to have some very compelling reason to buy it. there were two many mutual fund managers that have been burned by the financials to give me much comfort in their analytical skills and access to senior management. I remember some guy being quoted in Barrons how Countrywide was an amazing company and should be at $70 when it was $33, and how Bill Miller thought it was worth at least in the $20s when it was in the low teens. He also though yahoo was worth more than Microsoft offered. Wonder what he feels now. Bill Nygren at one point had 18% of oakmark select in WM. I thought that was overly confident. Certainly the recent anti-oil sands and drilling postures by various and sundry politicians, when we are being held hostage by our dependency on oil, and the havoc wreaked across the board by a poorly thought out ethanol plan which is really going to hurt all consumers makes me yearn for political candidates with more intelligence than we are seeing now. I particularly love the arguments of how drilling for oil isnt going to help us now, ignoring the fact that they said the same thing 5 years ago, when it could have helped us now, and could help us in 5 years had they approved it now.

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