It's true that Q hasn't provided alot of metrics or numbers on these new businesses they're going into. But I was thinking, and really, what metrics can they provide? These are really totally new businesses. And being how conservative Q is, I'm not surprised.
But deep down this is what I think. If they get it right, this can be huge, or at least a profitable business. Eventually it's going to be 5$ for tv.. and at that point the whole country will have it then. It will become standard just like text messaging which most people still pay $10 a month for. And the beauty is the amazing economics of the network. There is almost zero incremental cost to add subscribers on the network. Look how big and ubiquitous the TV market it. If they can just get a little, and on a monthly basis at that, it could be huge. In 5 years we might look at that 1billion dollars and think it was money well spent. Who else has the expertise and money to build a broadcast network at that? And if we are lucky, Mediaflo will be the only mobile broadcast network. Remember how powerful the 3 networks (ABC, CBS, and NBC) were in their days. I think Q somehow controls alot of the distribution here, and whatever happens, i think it's a good place to be, i don't know why, but it sounds good, and obvious for some innate reason. By the time people think or realize mobile broadcast is right, Q will be there. Like towns that spread out along the highways that were being built across the USA back then, people will realize, oh..you can deliver that? and that? and that? it's that easy? wow! okay.
Q can make money coming and going. The people who want to send content over the network. And the people who recieve the content over the network. They'll charge a little for this. A little for that. Multiply it by a few million subscribers and it might add up to something.
I'm sure Jim Mullens is running the numbers, while I'm taking customer complaints during the day.
Someday in a few years during the super bowl maybe Q will be charging 2 million bucks a minute for a bud light commercial! It's possible isn't it?
I get the same feeling with Firethorn and mobile commerce. Being the federation clearing center just seems like a powerful place to be. They probably have no idea how big the market is or how much money they will make. But I feel, if they can move the market where everybody is using their cells to pay for transactions, and firethorn is a major enabler, its a good place to be. Once again the power of the network and being in the center of it all. It just feels right somehow to me.
A funny thing that occurred to me is that Firethorn is mainly software. It's a beautiful business if they do get it to work. It's really just software. And they can get this Federation thing to stick, it will be a crucial point in the mobile payment chain. I'ts just a good place to be.
These are just remarkably big markets to serve, sell into, and enable. At least that's what I feel. I'm not smart enough to back it up with numbers! :)
I think maybe i'm attracted to the idea of mediaflo and Firethorn and brew because I feel they exert some kind of power over the growing value chain of how these businesses will develop. Somehow where they sit in the development of these budding markets just seems very crucial and central.
It will be interesting to see how this all develops. |
