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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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From: AllansAlias7/8/2008 9:02:14 AM
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A review of the longer-term...

I think the evidence has been very strong for a little while now that no Jan or Mar lows would hold. This has implications. In my opinion, this closes the door on any rise to new highs without significant further lows in the coming months.

Of course, there will be great rallies along the way and money to be made on the counter-trend long side, but the real money will be in shorting them and staying with the trend.

The bigger question is -- are we in the "big C" that would see us return to the 2002 lows? As of last week, I am of the opinion that this is what is happening. I think the evidence is just tilted that way now. So much structure rising out of 2002 has been violated now that I think that "trend" is over. We should not see new highs in the equity indices for years.

Here are the two scenarios that I consider to be the most likely:



That big purple 'C' will be a great buying opportunity, but there is a lot of shorting and gnashing of teeth before we get there.

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