Globex is up, but nothing to write home about. The news are uniformly dismal. The uncertainty rises -- we've drifted down in death-cramp gyrations unabated now for weeks, gasping for air. The tension is going to break one way or the other, in a wild swing up or down. I just don't see where we're headed, so I exited. Today is a plausible crunch time. Logically, we should just keep going down, but I can't help feeling the technicals will force themselves on us and swing us back up.
My prediction: we will have a rebound today, fast and furious, and it will draw in a lot of longs -- and then it will have no legs to stand on, and we'll keep going down later in the week. The real rally won't come until next week, from around 1200. Just gut feeling -- on the expectation we're just too oversold to simply keep drifting down, but the fundamentals won't allow a genuine bounce. So we'll have a fake bounce in the 1300 area, fifty straight up, like the March 10-11 jump, stay a day or two, and then back down, and further down.
This might be enough of a trigger, or excuse:
Bernanke Says Fed May Extend Wall Street Lending Access to 2009
Bloomberg - 1 hour ago
By Scott Lanman July 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may extend securities dealers' access to direct loans from the central bank into 2009 as long as emergency conditions ``continue to prevail,'' Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said.
bloomberg.com
Globex just turned negative, which is a great indicator of an up day -- as Vi noted, the positive premarket has almost invariably been a fakeout.
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