Longer-Term Market Trends Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends

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To: skinowski who wrote (1298)	7/9/2008 7:18:41 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) of 3209

Using the chart to which I am "replying" - yesterday's action could be still Wave 4 of 5, or it could be the start of a larger rally (to correct the entire decline since May). Curiously, the path the market will take will likely influence politics. Paradoxically, I think that the more bearish version at this time may be more promising for the Republicans. How so? 1) We are assuming that we are in a larger downtrend. 2) In order for the incumbent party to do well, there must be a perception that the economy is - at least - improving. Markets must rally for some time heading towards November. This happened in 2004 -- markets bottomed in the middle of August, and never looked back. Mr. Kerry "reported for duty", but was sent home. If within a month or so we'll finish waves waves 3 - and then 4 and 5 down counting since May, we'll be perfectly positioned for a big rally towards November. Do I believe all this? Yes. Or, let me put it this way -- If I were a candidate and the markets would move "against" me, I would most certainly refrain from spending my own money on the campaign.... :)

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