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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch
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From: Rarebird7/9/2008 8:11:10 AM
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Transcendental Market Fragments:

The Market:

Although oil dropped back in a nice move yesterday, prices remain at a level which continues to pressure the economy into contraction. Thus, the initial move down in oil prices, isn't going to be enough by a long shot at curing what ails the market.

But, from a short term trading standpoint, it could be the first signs that the stock market will be making a stand in this general price area. The first step in forming a short term bottom is usually a consolidation range and the Market may have entered such a range now. However, I expect to see a final low late in July around the 1230 level on the S&P, with a possible overshoot to the 1205 level. But this will likely be an excellent buying opportunity for a sustainable bear market rally till mid April 2009 before a crushing downturn ensues. Short term, I expect to see some kind of range develop now before a lower low develops late this month.

Dow Industrials:

Money flow was very bearish in the Dow yesterday. Poor money flow shows no conviction from buyers. This market has some significant downtrend lines to break through to prove the rally isn't more than an oversold bounce.

Bottom Line:

Crude Oil is closing in on its lower trading band, which should be supportive. A bounce in oil should bring out the sellers in stocks.
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