HF, I read that and it didn't help me much with valuing NextWave. Spectrum does change hands for quite a bit of money, but in the race down to the low frequencies, the higher frequencies might be left high and dry.
Of course, if base stations are cheap enough, as Zenbu Wi-Fi routers are becoming, then as I theorized a decade ago, nano-electronics with photovoltaics glued on could be sprinkled from aircraft, automatically setting themselves up wherever they land on a suitable surface. They could form themselves into networks and the spectrum would be in huge surplus.
Okay, I admit that's a little extreme. But backing off a little, small 10cm gizmoes could be spread around by hand, everywhere, with a range of 50 metres or so. That's enough to get across a road.
The balance between little cheap electronics, frequency availability, back-haul costs, and technological development is a rapidly moving optimization gamble for everyone involved. Too soon and a clunky technology costing a fortune with minimal market potential will end the dream. Too late and the market will be grabbed already. Getting the details right is tricky.
RoamAD's Wi-Fi metropolitan network 6 years ago was using $10,000 base station boxes like very large suitcases on the roof of buildings. Now the outdoor boxes are shoebox size and that's nearly all air. They are also cheap.
Zenbu's Wi-Fi routers are getting cheaper and better.
Telecom's EV-DO base stations are swishy, efficient little poles and boxes, these days and vastly cheaper than the town planning, civil engineering, property leasing, huge expense drama of cellphone towers and small buildings a decade and fifteen years ago.
Watching this space [NextWave with interest],
Mqurice |
