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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL 217.52

+1.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Tumbleweed who wrote (3401)	10/17/1997 11:55:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	of 19080

I'd bet hard dollars I'm not wrong. Jeff henley explicitly noted that he expects the slowdown from the y2k bubble to occur next summer. The average deployment for high end orcl applications typically runs 18 to 30 months. If you're lucky and can jam it through and you have tons of staff available, you might be able to run it through in 12 months, without adequate testing. Misconception on y2k. January 1, 2000 IS NOT the cut off date. Failures and breakdowns related to y2k have already started (credit card expirations (mostly fixed in U.S. payment terminals) and other items already.) The problem will become much more prominent on December 31, 1998! Trust me, if you haven't signed a purchase and deployment agreement by late spring GAME OVER! This slow down will absolutely happen. The question is precise timing and to what extent. Since those answers are unknowable until after it happens you have ahuge amount of investor psychology risk. I'm seeing significant risk in several names in the enterprise software sector. TD

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