i agree with you 100% on the dire vs imminent take on fnm/fre
on usa real estate that backs its financial enterprise, i currently favor the 50/50/50 outlook, meaning 50 % decline in nominal price, additional 50% decline via purchasing power loss relative to other paper currencies, over 50 months, if the planet is lucky, else 78/78/78 resolution
on dire moment, as opposed to process, the fed itself will at some dire juncture require a bailout, and either the funding cost for the empire ramps to true 18+%, or inflation ramps to genuine 18%, or both.
the sharp pain will be for but a moment, the rest is for lingering.
figure on some resultant social dislocations ... a lost fortune 50 here, a wandering army brigade there, and a whole lot of seriously wounded j6p's crowded into walmart parking lots applying for stamps of various sorts.
carjacking insurance will be advertised on tv, s.african fashion.
gold and guns will be outlawed, and foreign travels will be curtailed by fiat of all sorts.
just a guess. |
