*** Some thoughts about the mkt and PBG:
The mkt is rallying right nowm modestly, after a sharp decline in the past several weeks, on the idea that Fannie and Freddie will get help from the gov't to rescue them, so some bargain hunting and short-covering, but I am skeptical that a firm or good tradeable bottom has been put in due to a lack of a selling climax, double bottom, or sharp spike in the VIX.
This rally could last a few days or a few hours, as a technical bounce followed by a test of the lows last week or a capitulation, that could provide a tradeable bottom, or another leg down to a lower low. Too hard to discern yet, but a selling climax is a preferred signal for a bottom.
PBG (Petrobank Energy) has survived support at 44, which the P&F target was at and still is because the stock reached 44.05 (so technically it has not yet reached the target at 44.00), and its weekly stochastic had been dragging at below 25% for a few weeks, setting up a bullish crossover which occurred mid-week last week, and the daily MACD is close to crossing over now. The weekly MACD needs time to cross so it, along with the ultimate osc and DMI (ADX) won't turn positive for a week or two at a minimum, allowing for the possibility of a new bullish trend for the intermediate term.
But the stock needs to set a series of higher highs and higher lows in the next few weeks and to hold support at 46, or preferably at 48.
PBG will have its quarterly report come out in mid-August, which should have updates on Corcel-A4, Corcel C, and P3b at Whitesands, among other items.
PBG's partner at Peace River's Dawson project of conventional heavy oil, Duvernay, has just received a buyout offer from Shell Canada, which had also bought out Blackrock Ventures in the past.
Now Shell will have PBG as a partner using THAI at Dawson, which is probably the main reason why PBG has gapped up this morning. I am not chasing the stock due to the gap in the 49.35-49.90 range. The top of that gap is likely to be tested and the gap itself might get filled as occurred with the gap late last week.
Last week I reviewed audio and other presentations from the PBG site and news releases, annual and quarterly reports and my past conversations with mgmt.
PBG is in serious talks with 3 N.American oil companies for possible JVs. My guess is that Statoil is one of those because they are a neighbor and PBG has stated that they are in communication with them. Another guess is Oilsands Quest, who have an Axe Lake project that is nearing a startup, and PBG has property in the middle of BQI's lands now. Other companies that might be in talks are Suncor, Encana (another neighbor but in the past were adverserial), and Shell Canada (espeically after the Duvernay takeover).
PBG is in serious talks with two international companies: my guess are Ecopetrol and Royal Dutch Shell, who are starting a heavy oil project next to Petrominerales' lands in Colombia.
I believe that there is a good possibility of a JV announcement later this summer/early Fall with one of these companies.
Finally, PBG is exploring acquisition of lands or another JV in parts of Canada: Lloydminster area, NW Alberta and British Colunbia, at this time. They might be trying to acquire more lands in a big way just like they did with the Bakken and in Colombia. And they are nearing a solution to the large Torquay play, in my opinion.
regards,
drbob |
