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Biotech / Medical : Neurogen (NRGN)
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From: mopgcw7/15/2008 3:14:09 AM
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cs: Neurogen Corp (NRGN) Neutral [V] Y. Katherine Xu
CP: US$ 1.01 TP: US$ 3 CAP: US$ 42.4m
Adipiplon Insomnia Study Suspended; Lowering Target Price to $3 (from $4)

• Neurogen announced that the Phase II/III study of adipiplon side-by-side with Ambien in primary insomnia patients was
suspended due to higher than expected rate of unwanted next day effects (excessive grogginess and amnestic events). The
company believes that the bilayer tablet used for the first time in this study may not be performing as expected.

• We note that Neurogen previously reported data from Phase II studies where patients were simultaneously dosed with various
dosages of adipiplon IR and CR tablet combinations; the studies reported positive data with a satisfactory safety profile and
the PK/PD modeling pointed to the potential optimal IR and CR dosage combinations to be used in future studies. The
company then formulated the chosen IR and CR dosages into bilayer tablets which were used in the current study.

• We await the results of the investigation into the formulation issue, which is expected in the next 2-3 months. We continue to
expect data from the 3 ongoing studies by YE:08: Phase IIa study of adipiplon in anxiety, Phase IIa studies of aplindore in
RLS and Parkinson's Disease.

• The setback in the insomnia program weakens our confidence in the company's ability to execute and we expect the stock to
suffer. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock and are lowering our price target from $4 to $3 as a result of lowering the
probability of success of adipiplon in insomnia (from 61% to 36%) and delaying launch by six months (from Q3:11 to Q1:12) in
our model.
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