Sid,
Your views on the TLT play of mine a few months ago, upon reflection, look mostly right to me now.
I've sold off that position and adopt your view that it's just as likely deflationary seas we are heading into as inflationary. So, for me now, I'm playing on the short side of market indexes, figuring that in either event the overall market goes down more.
Been doing well on the short side of bank stocks, subprime lenders, homebuilders, XLF, etc., for the past couple of years, but that play is coming to an end now that many of these have already failed or gone into low single digits.
The easy money there has been made.
Harder to figure where to short now, other than a couple of retailers that have not given up the ghost yet (URBN) and the overall market indexes, which still seem to have a ways to drop. HOG is a new short of mine, eyeing their exposure to (very aggressive 100%+ LTV) loans that they have on their books --- $3 Billion+ of them, most now upside-down I would think.
Revisited the VIC ideas of yours, and added to MSII today(saw you were pretty heavy there - still a believer?), plus initiated some of the Points. Still long in the bus company units, as I have been for a couple of years or more. Even a better buy now. Curious if you are interested in their exchange offer or not?
Hope things are well. |
