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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 451.89

+1.9%

Jan 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37177)	7/15/2008 7:21:39 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (4) of 219653

Roubini sounds a bit insane lately. Surprisingly (at least to me), the US has not yet recorded a negative growth quarter. Recession has not yet started, but he does not acknowledged this basic failure of his predictions. He ignores the substantial contribution to US GDP of the rapidly falling non-oil trade deficit. He ignores the key difference between now and the 70's 80's and 90's: very low real long term interest rates (actually negative). He ignores that real housing prices in the US (i.e inflation adjusted) are already down more than 20%, so at least 2/3 of the price adjustment is arguably behind us. He ignores globalization and the rise of China, and Asia in general as both a source of supply, demand, and huge productivity increases, making the world a radically different place than the seventies and eighties. He ignores the swelling of sovereign wealth funds that will provide huge demand for equities once the bear market bottoms.

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