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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 374.22

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: carranza2 who wrote (37212)	7/16/2008 8:07:51 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (4) of 217942

I don't think "Hundreds of municipalities will go bust" nor do I think the US will "experience the worst recession of the last few decades", nor do I think the current financial crisis is "the worst since the Great Depression". I think a number of municipalities (certainly less than 100) will go bust, the US will experience a long period of subpar growth, possibly punctuated by shallow recessions, and by next year the financial crisis will be contained with fewer banks than, say, during the S&L crisis, going bust. Again there are huge differences between the current crisis and past ones. The pain is now spread around the world with foreigners actually bearing more of the US losses than US institutions. Interest rates are still at near all time lows, fueled by huge overseas savings. The low dollar and structural US efficiencies (labor flexibility, stagnant wages) are triggering exactly the kind of change that's needed in the US: a structural change in the economy from housing/consumption to exporting. And a significant segment of the world (the BRICs, for example) will continue to grow.

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