RED CHIP REVIEW (Revised 10/17/97)
Future Projected Earnings dated 9/17/97 (PRIOR TO CD ROLL-OUT)
- 1st FY98 Quarter - 12.4m sales; 0.02 eps (quarter ended 9-30-97)
- 2nd FY98 Quarter - 14.7m sales; 0.04 eps (quarter ending 12-31-97)
- 3rd FY98 Quarter - 18.6m sales; 0.09 eps
- 4th FY98 Quarter - 22.4m sales; 0.15 eps
with full FY98 estimate of 68.4m sales and 0.31 eps
9/16/97: Summary
exchange2000.com
8/6/97: Conversation with Analyst
exchange2000.com
RED CHIP DISCUSSION 10/8-10/17/97
From: Stuart Schreiber Oct 8 1997 1:11PM Reply #3735
I don't want to sound like a Topro cheerleader but I see a much greater potential in this company than estimated by Red Chip. The Y2 problem is real and I believe Topro is ready to capitalize greatly while also increasing their core business. Do your own due diligence; make your own decisions. But, if I based my decision on the Red Chip numbers I'd be elsewhere.
From: JDN Oct 8 1997 11:29AM Reply #3724
My only comment as to RedChip review is that I believe their Base business earnings estimate may be low. I wonder if they took into consideration the signigicant IMPROVEMENT in gross margin as described in the 4th qtr??
From: Trippi Oct 8 1997 1:10PM Reply #3734
Skipard -- I do set my own price targets -- i was pointing out how conservative the REDCHIP numbers with Y2K had to be when compared to earlier targets that did not include Y2K. I mean they are saying $13.50 with Y2K full bore? Give me a break.
From: David Furstenberg Oct 15 1997 9:03PM Reply #4164
I noticed a post a couple of days ago that Redchip Review follows TPRO. I confirmed this at their website (www.redchip.com) Redchip is the most respected small cap research magazine in the country. According to the poster, Redchip is looking for earnings of 30 cents in 1998 and over $1.00 in 1999. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where this stock will be if TPRO earns $1.00 per share. I was wondering if anyone has a copy of the research report done in September by Redchip. I am curious what grade TPRO was issued. Redchip is extremely thorough and if they are bullish on this company, it would alleviate any concerns that I have as to whether TPRO is legitimate.
From: David Furstenberg Oct 16 1997 11:28AM Reply #4192.
I just received and read the Redchip Review report on TPRO. Redchip issued the company a "B" due to potential risk factors. Their 12-18 month target is $7 excluding any sales from Y2K which they feel can add anywhere from $.50 to $6.50 to the price of the stock. This is based on their estimated sales of the new product between
$5,000,000 and $65,000,000. What do most followers of TPRO think is a more reasonable sales estimate? Thanks.
From: Jim Wilke Oct 16 1997 11:52AM Reply #4194
David, your question is key. It is one with many variables which we have no data of how to estimate. There are an incredible number of sites that could use TPRO's y2k services or CD's, but in the real world, it may be that most IS people and CEO's will opt to simply do an in-house check as best they can.
I get some technical journals that center on embedded systems. In them, articles are beginning to appear that discuss how to trouble shoot the y2k problem. At least one large corporation sent out over a news group email, a document which out lines their strategy to deal with this problem.
My suspicion is that the larger companies which have many plant systems, and those plants which have high legal liabilities, will likely contract out the y2k work to professionals (read TAVA, Inc. etc.).
Mid-sized plants, of which there are many, would be split, possibly three ways: 1. test and replace embedded systems using in-house talent only, 2. test and replace using professional resources (TAVA's CD), 3. wait and see (which I hope will be the smallest group!!!)
Small factories, businesses, real estate building owners, and small utilities, will likely try to do the y2k work themselves ... if they are even aware that they have a potential problem.
There are many other variables in the question of how the y2k sales figures will go, but time does not permit me to go further into this now. I think your question is the $64K queston. And if we could figure out a way to reliably predict the answer of maginitude, and timing of its answer, there would be a lot less tension on this thread.
From: David Furstenberg Oct 16 1997 12:58PM Reply #4202
Redchip likes their primary business. I am in at 5 13/32 so I feel pretty good. I think the 12-18 month Redchip prediction is fairly conservative. I am looking for $7 in 6 months. If press releases
come out about significant sales of the new product, the stock could be a flyer. I don't see much downside from here unless I have overlooked something.
From: David Furstenberg Oct 16 1997 10:30PM Reply #4274
The potential is enormous as pointed out in the Redchip Review report. Their target price was $7 without the Y2K product. They stated that this product could add another $5 to the stock price this year.
From: David Sheridan Oct 16 1997 10:54PM Reply #4280
<you've got to wonder where Redchip Review came up with the lower end of the range they quoted for the addition of y2k business in the stock price ($0.50-$6.50 per share).>
Perhaps RedChips estimates are not re share price increase due to Y2K, but EPS increase. haha
From: David Furstenberg Oct 17 1997 8:33AM Reply #4293
Redchip is always conservative in their analysis. They are not one of the "shady" research companies out there that put out reports on $5 companies with $20 targets. Their record over the years is excellent.
From: jan mccabe Oct 17 1997 11:55AM Reply #4304
I made a call- the next review date for Topro in the RedChip Review is around Dec. 12th. The lady I spoke with said that the companies are updated on a quarterly basis and that the issue coming out tomorrow wouldn't have anything. My latest copy is dated Sept. 16th. |
