Brumar89: You say that you do not think that race will be a big factor in the 2008 election.
I think that Race will be the defining issue. I say this not from a prejudiced position as I do not view myself as a racist. Rather, I say it based on observation, conversation, research, and a bit of prognostication, that prognostication based on an admittedly casual analysis of Hillary Clinton's aborted attempt to become the Democratic nominee.
If you look at Hillary's attraction to the white vote during the contest with Obama, you will discover that Obama has a huge hill to climb if he wants the majority of the whilte vote. In Pennsylvania, for instance, while Obama got the Black vote in spades, he did not come close to getting a majority of the white vote. Furthermore, McCain has been steadily closing the gap in the PA polls and now looks as is he just might have erased Obama's once mighty lead.
Race is the 10000 pound gorilla in the room. Yes, the demand that everyone be 'politically correct' these days keeps the beast hidden in shadows if not almost invisible. But, having grown up in the South, and having lived in Chicago now for almost 40 years, I know the power of Race in the conscious mind, not to mention the subconscious mind. Of course, the most rabid racists among us are not hesitant to make Race THE issue. Race, although perhaps not the paramount issue in today's cultural, economic, social and economic wars, is still an issue hovering in those twilight minds observing today's political aspirants to the highest office in the land. And as that twilight becomes the bright light of day as one enters the voting booth in November, the Race issue will loom large and it will become the decision maker among the doubtful when the vote is cast.
Race will become the unspoken and the unconfessed "issue" that will decide the election. When the typical American voter goes into the privacy of the ballot box, political correctness and the need and desire to be socially acceptable goes out the window. One votes his deepest fears and most hidden prejudices. And The Reverend Wright's famous "God damn America", not to mention Michelle's "For the first time in my life. . ."aberration are two images that are now stamped indelibly on the hidden and subconscious levers of the typical white voter's minds that will guide their hand when they punch out the voting cards and put them into the computer to cast their votes.
Obama will get almost all of the Black votes but he will lose. He will lose because the White vote will not come his way enough to overcome his black vote advantage. And the Electoral College final talley, the defining talley, will reflect the race issue throughout the 50 states of the union. Neither Red nor Blue, the Electoral College will the reflect the deepest and the darkest recesses of the continuing White majority in the nation.
(I doubt that Obama will win as much of the Mexican vote as his managers expect. My experiences in the greater Chicago Mexican community is that the Mexican is also prejudiced, and deeply prejudiced against the Blacks. I remember my childhood in the deep South: the Southern "White Trash" were the most rabid of the racists because they had the most to lose to any Black ascendancy, being closest to the Blacks in cultural and social definitions. Today's Mexican and immigrant population is today's "White Trash" or "trailor trash" subgroup. Like the Southern Red Necks before them, they have to contend with the Blacks every day and out in the streets for their piece of the cultural, social and economic pie.)
Please read my comments carefully. They are based on a review of the history of the topic and the place. My sociologist friends agree with my analysis even though they might disagree with my conclusions.
It would be nice to pretend that Race issues and other sociological issues will have no role in the coming election but to do so in my view ignores the evidence. |
