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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Kirk © who wrote (37017)7/16/2008 7:49:04 PM
From: octavian  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
kirk quoted John Bogle as follows:

The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly fifty years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. Yet market timing appears to be increasingly embraced by mutual fund investors and the professional managers of fund portfolios alike.

--Kirk, I believe Mr. Bogle is talking about the difficulty of beating the market with market timing over long time periods.

Some of us, however, believe there ARE certain times when it might be appropriate to do a little market timing for other reasons.

For example, when we were obviously in a major bubble in 1999 and I was nearing retirement, I thought it might be a good idea to try to avoid a major bear. It seemed very obvious to me that a bubble was bound to be followed, at some point, by a major bear.

It seemed a little silly, to me, not to TRY to avoid it, or at least reduce its impact. That is one reason I liked Brinker. Because he kept telling us he was not going to willingly ride it down.

There are other examples.

Our friend InvesTing certainly would not agree with your inference that market timing is always a bad idea, as he did it quite successfully last fall.
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