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Larry, I will plead guilty to being an LOR "rah rah" but must take at least moderate offense to the "inaccurate" label. I am investing money here and am at least attempting to do so based on analysis vis a vis emotion. I see that you have picked up the "CDMA inflated capacity" diatribe. It is true that Jacobs initial claims for somewhere between 10 and 20 times superior through-put over TDMA technology has, at least to date, been shown to be "only" 3 to 7 times based on installed systems under load. Further tweaking (and Motorola itself just demonstrated a huge improvement in CDMA base stations) should push the number up the curve. TDMA/GSM systems are massively better today than when first introduced. The CDMA real life learning curve is about 18 months old. But let's talk about today, right now. If each G* transponder can conduct only 3 to 7 times more calls than an Iridium transponder, this rah rah says sis boom bah! Now, let's examine your, almost throw-away, statement: "Of course it (referring to satellite to satellite links) is much more expensive". Larry, do you know how much more expensive? Try about $5 billion. As Senator Dirksen said about our defense budget, a billion here, a billion there, sooner or later you're talking about real money. G*'s design superiority is not simply a function of CDMA. You're right, they're putting all their brains on the ground in base stations whereas MOT is putting the switching in the air. Now what happens when the damned things go on the fritz? And don't tell me they won't. G* throws a bunch of engineers in a Land Rover. What's Motorola gonna do--call space repair? I have great respect for MOT's technical prowess (and zero respect for their propensity to litigate when they find themselves overmatched) but I have real difficulty envisioning a guy with a screwdriver in orbit. Call me zany, call me emotional, but I'll take that bet all day long. We are in agreement on one thing: the demand is such that both systems will sell out their transponder space. But this rah rah is interested in return on investment, and the ROI on G* will be massively superior to the ROI on Iridium. At some point, our friends on Wall Street will figure that out and the relative stock prices will reflect that reality. Happy investing. Regards. Mike (rah rah) Doyle |
