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Politics : GOPwinger Lies/Distortions/Omissions/Perversions of Truth
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To: d[-_-]b who wrote (129173)7/18/2008 11:26:55 PM
From: J_F_Shepard  Read Replies (1) of 173976
 
"Hubbert claimed 2000 was peak oil, yet the inconvenient truth is that world production has continued to grow to keep ahead of demand. Eventually we will reach peak, but no one knows for sure when that will be - try actually testing the theories once in a while."

First of all, we were discussing US peak production which occurred in 1972 and you maintain that the downward trend can be reversed by more drilling. No geologic expert and not even Dick Cheney agree with that and accept that domestic production peaked in 1972. Secondly, Hubbert first presented his model in 1950 and showed that US production would peak around 1970, therefore he was on target....dead nuts. Your naivete tells you that projections have to tell you exact day and hour when peak will occur which, sadly, exposes your weaknesses in scientific method.

Now you suddenly switch to world peak oil and scoff at Hubbert who you say predicted 2000 as the peak....a closer look will show you his model says the date is about 2010... A whole bunch of experts from the link you recommend have dates +/- 5 years of that date...in other words, Hubbert once again is on," dead nuts"....

re:"Eventually we will reach peak, but no one knows for sure when that will be - try actually testing the theories once in a while."

The model has been tested and has been found to be amazingly accurate. See the table below from Hirsch. You can quibble about a year or two here or there but no knowledgeable person expects more than that except you ,of course, who wants the exact time and location of that peak barrel.

re:"Hirsch".....I fail to see why you think Hirsch's paper is in serious disagreement with all others published on Hubbert's peak oil model....please note it is a mathematical model, not a
theory...but use theory if it helps you understand.

Table I-1. Predictions of World Oil Production Peaking

Projected Date Source of Projection
2006-2007 Bakhitari
2007-2009 Simmons
After 2007 Skrebowski
Before 2009 Deffeyes
Before 2010 Goodstein
Around 2010 Campbell
After 2010 World Energy Council
2010-2020 Laherrere
2016 EIA (Nominal)
After 2020 CERA
2025 or later Shell
No visible Peak Lynch
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