Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (8673)	7/21/2008 5:50:24 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) of 26021

From Jeff Masters: Dolly a significant threat to Texas wunderground.com Dolly will potentially be a dangerous hurricane for Texas and northern Mexico. ... The upper-level low that interfered with Dolly for so long has now moved away and weakened, and is no longer an issue. Wind shear over Dolly is essentially zero, and expected to remain below five knots over the next 2-3 days. Dolly will be over waters of 28-29°C. These SSTs are slightly below average for this time of year, but plenty warm enough to support Dolly intensifying into a hurricane before landfall. These warm waters extend to a moderate depth, with a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential of about 40 kJ/cm**2. This is below the value of 80 usually associated with rapid intensification, but still high enough to allow Dolly to strengthen into a major hurricane, if it has enough time to do so. Our skill in making intensity forecasts is poor, but it currently appears that Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. I give a 10% chance that Dolly will go through a burst of rapid intensification shortly before landfall and achieve major hurricane status at landfall. Note: Major status is a Cat 3.

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