Net, that's a cute little chart. It says that in all of human history, including all of the vast efforts of the 20th century when the industrial revolution was on the rampage and yank tanks roared the freeways and insulation was an after-thought, there has been not even 200 ppm produced.
Of the CO2 we have produced, only half of it is still in the atmosphere. It's escaping back into trees, animals, oceans fish and onto the ocean floor. The faster we fill it up, the faster it's escaping.
Worst of all, despite that vast effort, we haven't raised the temperature at all. The ice age can return at will. Perhaps we have held it off, but that's uncertain. More likely it hasn't even tried to return and is planning that move for as soon as next northern winter.
Already, the promised disappearance of the ice cap this summer has failed. Worse, the ice cover has INCREASED!!!
Unfortunately, even if we produce ALL of the oil, gas, coal, tar sands, shale and some of that methane hydrate, AND it ALL stayed in the atmosphere, we'd get to only 1500 ppm. Which is only back to the comfortable levels of recent history.
Unfortunately, correlation is not causation. While 1500 ppm was the level when temperatures were tropical, we don't know that the CO2 as a cause of that warmth. It might have been the result of that warmth. Or simply coincidental.
Unfortunately, as has been shown, when we produce CO2, Gaia gobbles it up again and dumps it back on the ocean floor in colossal sedimentary layers and then trundles it off to the subduction zones to power volcanoes and restock the carbon graveyards.
If, over the next 200 or 300 years, people do produce that 1500 ppm, Gaia will have gobbled much more than half of it judging by performance over the last 50 years when CO2 production efforts were huge. So in another 200 years, we'll not even be at 1000 ppm.
Unfortunately, you will be dead by then so you won't get to witness it. Unfortunately, vicious rumour has it that I will be too. That will reduce the population. Unfortunately, many other people will also be dead by 2200.
Unfortunately, people are not having babies as they did in the good old days when kings and tribes ruled the planet, conquering all they could, when wealth was found rather than created, when women had ten babies each and needed to to keep the tribe strong enough to defeat neighbouring tribes and take over their territory and women. Nowadays, with contraception keeping population in check, and being hacked up with a sword not as popular for the average bloke [who prefers to watch it on a plasma screen], there's no need for numbers for their own sake.
Already, countries like Japan, Italy, Germany and elsewhere have got populations shrinking by choice, not due to the four horses of the apocalypse. China, India and others are heading in that direction. Africa is still in 19th century mode with Malthusian solutions seeming more likely than civilized solutions, but things change quickly and China seems to be taking over Africa.
Overall, Peak People will occur in 2037. That means Peak CO2 production will occur about the same time. Peak CO2 will occur long after that because it takes a while for Gaia to get hold of it. Peak Oil will also occur in 2037.
Technological developments continue apace and burning carbon isn't an inherently fun thing to do [though bonfires are fun]. People burn carbon to perform other functions which are what they really want. For example getting from Auckland to London in a hurry. Or getting from Auckland to Wellington quickly.
In 1974, we got to London in 6 weeks after sitting on a ship, burning fuel day in day out. The CO2 produced to build the ship and provision it was large too.
If tomorrow I caught a flight to London, it would take about 24 hours and I'd cruise at 10 km at 1000 kph using not much fuel at all. When the 380 is available, it will be even less fuel.
A trip to Wellington takes about 60 litres and about 8 hours by big car. With superconductor levitated and propelled vehicles in partial vacuum tubes, it'll be almost nothing.
But why travel when Qualcomm's and Zenbu's amazing cyberspace technology can send your eyes, ears and voice to anywhere, in 3D? Most travel isn't tactile. Already, people do a LOT in and via cyberspace. Right now, you are NOT driving your car.
So, the few of us remaining in 2100 should plan for an ice age return because our CO2 production is too puny. Even if it is enough, it might be a matter of correlation not causation that 1500 ppm and warmth go together. There doesn't even seem to be a mechanism for CO2 to warm things up much compared with the other effects driving climate.
Gung Ho,
Mqurice |
