re:["That chart is screaming BUY the HUI Gold Index or related equities."]
Maybe, maybe not.
First, it can only be a "screaming buy" - if you
took profits at considerably higher levels.
Second, I wouldn't be looking at gold in a vacuum. I'd be
monitoring the entire commodity complex, oil & gas,
copper, coal, platinum, the CRB et al.
Two other thoughts...
I would not try to make a single move re-entry, I'd divide
my re-entry into 2-3 buy ins.
I would also buy "time" via LEAPS, or long dated options
with my initial re-entries, and then shorten duration with
my 2nd, and 3rd buy ins at lower levels if seen.
HUI 380 has been support on the lower end of this trading
range, but beneath that, we have a lot of "air" all the way
back down to the August 2007 washout lows of the HUI 280's.
More on that this weekend.
amarksp00,
Concerning the Sun Valley Gold piece on Deflation...
My reply in it's entirety would be "pages" long, and would
take "hours" to write. I don't have time right now, and this
might not be the time, or place for that. But, I will post a
few comments on it this weekend.
Fwiw, Peter Palmedo runs Sun Valley Gold. You will also want
to read his piece titled:
Gold 2002: "Can the Investment Consensus Be Wrong? The Summers Barsky Gold Thesis."
Google the title, Peter Palmedo, and Sun Valley Gold LLC.
Top performance requires both the mastery of the art, and
the science sides of trading. I don't think it would be
unfair to say that Sun Valley is well know for their work
on the "science" side, but as far as results?
mffais.com
(their holdings shown here)
Report Date: 2008-05-09
Current Value: $104,443,845
Total Performance: -7.22 %
Down -7% in a market that exploded from Jan to March,
and has since handed "some of us" 300 index points
via a silver-plattered trading range?
I respect their "academic" work, and the Phd's behind it,
but in my world... Phd's make 1/10th of what Traders
make, and there's very good reason for it.
You can have all the brilliant historic research in the
world at your fingertips, but you still have to know
when to ignore it, when to use it, and why.
As far as the report you linked to on gold and deflation,
to be fair... it was written in 1996. I agree with some of
what Hewitt has to say, and disagree with much. More on that
later.
Be careful out there,
S.O.T.B. |
