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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: jjstingray who wrote (1466)7/24/2008 9:03:37 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) of 3209
 
Those funny 3-wave bottoms we saw are a worry, but many charts sport a 5-wave move out of the low. It's probably the low for a little while.

In the "big C" scenario, this up is only 'ii of C' down.

I think one has to buy the pullback here. Stop is pretty clear -- anything within a few points of the low.

We are now back to the same level in SPX where I covered the last SPX short. I wanted dessert to go by, and I always want the appetizer to go by the other way (i.e., up). I think that is being served now.

There are only three choices here:

1) I am dead wrong and the low in July is a low for many months to come, rather than only a wave 'ii' up.

2) We head soon to another minor new low before a sustained rally.

3) We are in the first part of the wave 'ii' up, with the brother leg to come.

Well, #1 and #3 will look the same for a while -- remember my post on "meat and potatoes":
Message 24779117

Basis SPX, we've seen 5 waves up out of the low now, so we should be thinking ahead to getting long for the brother leg.

Those funny 3-wave bottoms still worry me, making me less confident, but what the hell... sometimes a market just doesn't count and you have to throw EW out the window.

Summary:
-- stance for a few weeks: up
-- stance for months: down
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