The crosscurrents here are straining my ability to form a cohesive global picture. I see your NDX count, but I struggle to reconcile it with $RUT:
That chart, to me, looks like it needed to bounce in some sort of B/2 before breaking through 650 to the downside. And given that even $NDX has been bouncing 12 of the last 18 weeks, I favor this bounce as one of fairly low degree. I would expect a 3-6 week duration, but given its sharpness, it could wrap up even earlier.
It was unlikely that $COMPQ would break 2200 on the first retest, so it was likely to need a pause here. However, I think that 2200 needs to fail.
The Dow has my puzzler puzzled. This was the first eight-week downleg of this bear; does it require a longer timeframe upward correction?
And is SOX saying anything significant?
My best guess, trying to mold all that together, would be for a deep pullback, followed by a gradual retest of the price highs for this move. I agree that it is unlikely we will make substantial downside price progress within the next 2-4 weeks. I guess the strategies suggested by that scenario would be either buying a retest for a brief 1-2 week trade, or writing near-the-money puts. <gulp> That latter one is scary. Might do it with someone else's money, but probably not my own...
`BC |
