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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (82076)	7/25/2008 1:51:55 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Gauge of future US economy near a 5-year low: ECRI Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:23am EDT reuters.com NEW YORK (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell to its lowest level in nearly five years and its annualized growth rate was also down, indicating that an upturn in the business cycle is not yet in sight, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.4 in the week to July 18 from 131.1 in the previous period, downwardly revised from 131.2. The decline in the index --to its lowest since it hit 129.0 in the week to October 24, 2003-- was due to higher interest rates and jobless claims and to weaker housing, Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI said in an instant message interview. The index's annualized growth rate slipped to a 10-week low at negative 6.9 percent from minus 6.5 percent, revised down from minus 6.4 percent. "The way a good leading index works is that its level always turns up months before the end of the recession," Achuthan said. "With the WLI level falling to its lowest reading in nearly five years, it is clear that a business cycle recovery is nowhere in sight." (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

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