If we don't ramp up something else, the default will be natural gas.
I've pointed out before that several of the alternatives you mention - solar and wind, will undoubtedly require an expansion of natural gas generated power. That wouldn't be true of geothermal and nukes. But I don't hear much on geothermal and don't know much about it. Wave power - ditto. I don't see any big new projects coming on in either of those areas. Maybe there will be - ??
Secondly, natural gas usage is not expected to grow much. See the DOE report:
eia.doe.gov;
I see that indicated. That is probably because they're not considering that there will be a major increase in wind and solar power that you are advocating. Yes, that is the case - check Figure 87 on page 9 of 11. It shows liquid fuels for transportation continuing to grow.
U.S. consumption of liquid fuels—including fuels
from petroleum-based sources and, increasingly,
those derived from nonpetroleum primary fuels such
as coal, biomass, and natural gas—totals 22.8 million
barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case, an
increase of 2.1 million barrels per day over the 2006
total (Figure 87). All of the increase is in the transportation sector, which accounts for 73 percent of total
liquid fuels consumption in 2030, up from 68 percent
in 2006.
I note though they think ethanol will be a growing source of liquid fuel - going from 4% to 15.8%. Questionable considering the building concerns over the impact on food prices. But hey, ... who knows.
If a major shift happens away from liquid fuels for transportation, then there will be a corresponding shift to more natural gas use for electrical generation, especially if the electrical generation is from wind and solar.
Next, I suggest you page down to page 6 of 11 - see Figure 82. You'll see they are projecting a significant increase in LNG imports. And that is WITHOUT a massive shift to wind and solar power that you're advocating. If that shift happens, we'll need to import even more LNG.
Net U.S. imports of natural gas from Canada are
projected to decline, and net imports of LNG are
projected to grow, from 2006 through 2030. Most of
the expected growth in U.S. natural gas imports is in
the form of LNG. The total capacity of U.S. LNG
receiving terminals increases from 1.5 trillion cubic
feet in 2006 to 5.2 trillion cubic feet in 2009 in the
reference case (with no further increase through
2030), and net LNG imports grow from 0.5 trillion
cubic feet in 2006 to 2.8 trillion cubic feet in 2030
(Figure 82).
Actually that chart confirms what I was telling you earlier about growing LNG imports. And to repeat, if there's a big increase in wind and solar, that will push up LNG imports even more. |
