Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 200.46

-17.2%

Feb 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: mas_ who wrote (254850)	7/27/2008 9:41:30 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (3) of 275872

Dear _Mas: I took what was end Q1/07 as "below 0.5" and measured what end Q3/07 seemed to be. People don't seem to have a problem measuring die size by counting dies on a 300mm or 200mm wafer. I guess some will complain that I should have measured end Q2/07 and then end Q4/07. But then I would point out that a report presented in mid June 07 likely used older data like end of Q1/07. The graph supports this as the case because it ends Q3/07 for a mid December 07 report. Of course it currently past end Q2/08, 15 months after Q1/07 and 9 months later than the graph ends. The trend was still quite down on a QoQ and YoY basis. Given that the trend looks like about 60-80% DD per quarter on average, it likely is below 0.10 by now. There is a lot of information in that presentation even taking the fact that it is about 7 months old now. It talks of Asset Smart which looks to use the best fab for what needs to be done. Only Chartered seems to be in both GPU and CPU circles. And after 55nm GPU, it seems that CPU and GPU start to use the same process on the future process slide. Asset Smart seems to say that leading edge products will use internal fabs and bulk products will use foundries. This is borne out in the production rate by year slide. And the 45nm seems to use HiK/MG although it could be a mid life kicker. Asset lite likely means a conversion of the internal fabs to 51% owned foundries selling processed wafers at cost with others helping by picking up a larger portion of the process development in return for larger allocations of wafer starts. And the savings going toward building of next gen fabs. Something like what Chartered does. The 51% ownership takes care of the cross license agreement, the fact that its run at cost makes it profit neutral and lastly it removes both the building and process R&D while still giving consortium members first dibs with implementations of those processes. Also the larger volumes help lower costs by spreading process R&D out over a wider base of products. Pete

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