This press release by SEMI below is a little late in being posted, but it does have some interesting predictions about Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Sales for the future. It goes a long way towards explaining the -26.3 percent performance of the 63 stock IBD semiconductor equipment index since the first of the year.
wps2a.semi.org
<<SEMI Announces Mid-year Consensus Forecast for Chip Equipment Industry
Expect Semiconductor Equipment Sales of $34.12 Billion in 2008
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. – July 14, 2008 – SEMI projects 2008 semiconductor equipment sales to reach $34.12 billion according to the mid-year edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Forecast, released here today by SEMI at the annual SEMICON West exposition.
The forecast indicates that, following six percent market growth in 2007, the equipment market will decline 20 percent in 2008, but will experience a rebound with annual growth of 13 percent and six percent in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
“We began to see equipment spending declines during the second half of 2007, driven by lower spending in the memory sector and a less than favorable device pricing environment," said Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "However, expectations for 2009 are leaning toward a solid industry recovery and subsequent growth in the low double digits.”
Wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is expected to contract 21 percent in 2008 to $25.4 billion. The forecast predicts that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will decline by 14 percent to $2.44 billion in 2008. The market for semiconductor test equipment is forecasted to decline by 20 percent to $4.04 billion this year.
Growth is anticipated to be negative in all regions, except China, where equipment sales are projected to increase one percent over 2007. The new equipment market in China is expected to surpass both the European and Rest of the World markets this year.
The Japanese market is projected to reclaim the number one spot from Taiwan, as the result of significant capital expenditure cutbacks in Taiwan this year. Taiwan is expected to fall back to the number two spot, followed by South Korea. The North American market is expected to contract 13 percent, resulting in the fourth largest market for new equipment.
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