I think this table is very interesting:
SUNW Revenue (Thousands of U.S. Dollars)
Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Sep 960,481 1,273,439 1,485,278 1,859,019 2,098,604
Dec 1,130,678 1,475,349 1,751,383 2,081,588 ??
Mar 1,195,957 1,505,030 1,840,028 2,114,618 ??
Jun 1,402,736 1,648,067 2,018,062 2,543,121 ??
Total 4,689,892 5,901,885 7,094,759 8,598,346 ??
Why do I find this table interesting? Well -- it speaks volumes about SUNWs business cycles.
Every year from 1994 thru 1997 SUNWs weakest Q is the September one. Look above to see that. Also, SUNW has sequentially increased sales every single year from the September Q thru the rest of the year. That is a pretty darn impressive stat if you ask me.
Seems like SUNW is a perfect short sell into the October EPS release. That is what the table is suggesting. Kind of weird how SUNWs sales just drop off from the June Q to the Sept Q.
nyhow, based on the $2.09 Billion they reported last nite, SUNW is on its way to an all time record Q.
This is the first year SUNW has kicked off Sept with sales > 2.0 Billion. What about the stock price? Well, I think todays action was overdone. However, based on last years trend, it took SUNW 8 months to break out again. PSR on SUNW closed today 1.72.
I find this attractive value. I would like to get long in the mid/low $30s if I can. But, I dont know if it will stay in the $30s for that much longer. Time will tell. I do think SUNW will hit new highs in 1998.
Cheers!
Jeff Mills |
