Newsweek:
The thing to remember is that the two polls were actually targeting two different audiences. While Gallup's tracking poll focused on 2,674 registered voters (i.e., anyone who answers the phone and is registered to vote) the USA Today survey homed in on a more elusive group of 791 likely voters (i.e., respondents most likely to show up on Election Day, according to "how much thought [they] have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November"). Likely voter models far from flawless, but they do help measure how voter enthusiasm may affect an election. In this case, according to Gallup polling director Frank Newport, the number of likely GOP voters was higher than in June's USA Today survey--mainly because Obama's international trip, the media's "laudatory" coverage and McCain's vigorous attacks "may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans." The result? A 10-point swing for McCain since June.
The lesson of Gallup's contradictory surveys is hardly set in stone. But one thing seems clear: McCain fares better when voters on the right are given a visceral, immediate reason to resent Obama--like his journey to Europe and the Mideast, which many saw as presumptuous--and are therefore more eager to vote. Most polls of registered voters released since June show Obama stuck below 50 percent--a reminder, says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, of the particular obstacles he faces. “Here’s a 46-year-old African American with a narrative that is very unusual and that few other Americans can relate to,” he told the Times. “Add to that the fact that he has had four years in the United States Senate and very little international experience. That’s a large leap for the American public to make.” But while some respondents refrain from voting for Obama for those very reasons, they're not always enough to inspire respondents to vote against him--which is why the same surveys show McCain mired in the low 40s with 10 percent still undecided. It's only when voters are given something polarizing to cling to--a criticism, an image, an event--that they can tilt the outcome toward the Republican nominee (as the new USA Today numbers demonstrate). Simply put, inchoate doubts about Obama won't lift McCain to victory; specific attacks may. This afternoon, I called the Arizona senator's current anti-Obama onslaught more harmful than helpful. Today's mismatched pair of Gallup polls may be an early sign that I was wrong--and that McCain won't be cutting back on the swipes any time soon. |
