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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

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4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (39720)	7/29/2008 12:19:15 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) of 95622

Unfortunately, we need more of these types of downgrades before we hit a bottom, imo. Two examples: MTSN saw revenue drop to $41Mil in the last quarter and have guided the low end next quarter to $29Mil! Keep in mind that in the 06/07 quarter, MTSN reported $86Mil in revs. In other words, this current quarter could see MTSN's revs fall to 1/3 from 5 quarters before! That is one heck of a fall. NVLS saw revenue drop to $258Mil in the last quarter and have guided the low end to $240Mil next quarter, which wold be a 43% drop from the 06/07 quarter! We are working our way into a true trough. The question is still: when is it going to occur and how fast will the rebound be? TO

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