Some good charts as well (pricing versus time for memory product) - remember ASPs are driving global IC sales.
My guess everybody is extremely skittish about Q4 - and that's not much of surprise considering crude made a 50% run on top of a very high level.
The volatility of crude is a direct result of more "market participants" entering this market;
how can a world economy deal with a 50% increase within six months and than down close to 20% within a month.
Nobody doubts there is strong demand for energy but this is played by WS just like Qualcom to $1000...IMO WS hyped up crude and commodities to offset the losses from subprime.
I doubt China is going to subsidize gasoline if they don't have an export market like the US - and US automakers did make the change.
DRAM contract pricing: Flat in July but to weaken in August; NAND Flash: Chances of Improving Sales in 2H Hot Season via Low-price Promotion; DT PC market keeps eroding on sluggish demand
Published Jul.22, 2008
DRAM contract pricing: Flat in July but to weaken in August
DRAM contract price showed signs of bottoming out in April, with a strong rebound soon followed in May. Price of 1GB part has surged by 30% from US$17.50 in April to US$22 in July. Spot price of the same-density 667MHz part, however, has dipped by approximately 9% from US$2.16 to US$1.97 in the same period.
Such a divergent price trend has enlarged the price premium of contract quotes over spot quotes. Price gap of the same-density part has changed from -13% (US$1.88 vs. US$2.16) in late April to +21% (US$2.38 vs. US$1.97) on July 21.
A weak spot pricing has constrained an upward momentum of contract pricing. DRAM makers failed to raise their quotes by 5% in 1H July with most posted a flat quotation. They are able to maintain a stable pricing in 2H of July, but a weakening trend is projected in August.
DRAM spot pricing: Lusterless demand trend to be consistent
After hitting the price bottom at US$1.87 during late 2007, spot price of 1Gb DDR2 667Mhz has enjoyed a consistent upward trend thereafter. As of May 28, an appreciation of ~22% has been seen. Quote still hold firm at US$2.01 mark on July 9 but it has later trended downward to US$1.97 on July 21.
Spot price has dropped by about 1-2% during July 15-21, implying no obvious improvement has been seen in demand. As the Beijing Olympics is opening soon, stricter crackdown of illegal electronics component in China has discouraged demand critically in July. Even a rebound arrives in August, shrinking demand form Europe may somehow offset it. Also, major memory module houses and distributors are still housing an inventory of more than 30 days. It is expected that a lusterless demand trend to persist in 2H 2008 with a meaningful rebound unlikely to emerge.
Off Season Weakened by Uncertainty; but Chances of Improving Sales in 2H Hot Season via Low-price Promotion
Curbed by extending impact from subprime woes , inflationary pressure and natural disaster in China, influence of a seasonality downturn for NAND Flash-based end-applications, such as handset, MP3 player and memory card, is intensified from mid 2Q, resulting an aggravated glut in the supply chain. Because of the intensified weakness, influence of Hynix's output trim as announced in early April, has been offset. Therefore, NAND Flash pricing has dropped by over 20% MoM in June when companies see growing pressure during quarter end on a consistent sluggish demand, despite pricing has once posted a mild bounce in April.
So far most major NAND Flash vendors have no amendments to their annual production growth plans in 2008.DRAMeXchange therefore estimates that NAND Flash supply bit growth to reach 149% YoY this year. Given that seasonality upturn impact should be weaker than earlier expected, and possible turnaround will only start exerting influence after mid 3Q, the observed glut should persist in the quarter.
Despite demand is still going to trail behind supply in 3Q, the noticeable price drop of over 50% from 4Q07 to mid-2008 should help spurring demand during the back-to-school season, week-long holidays in China (early October), Thanksgiving Day and Christmas. As new NB PCs, low-cost PCs and smart phones are expected to deliver stable demand for UFD and related NAND Flash in 4Q, the NAND Flash market is likely to swing to more equilibrium in 4Q08. For 2008, as a whole, NAND Flash demand bit growth is estimated to reach 140% YoY.
Projecting pricing in 2H, DRAMeXchange estimated sales of 3G iPhone from Apple as a promising start from mid-July because the launch should help inspire market sentiment. When industry players regain their confidence, a stabilizing pricing should be seen accordingly. But DRAMeXchange expects a meaningful rebound when pre-stock activities for hot season gradually impact the market after mid 3Q.
DT PC market keeps eroding on sluggish demand
A structural change is taking place when consumers looking for new NBs to replace DT PC. The replacement does not just take place in the entry-level and mainstream segments, but instead, also occurring in the high-end segment. Such a transition is driven by notebook specification advancement and penetration of Internet connection. Consumers used to pursue for a compact-size NB in the old days. But as NB now being a device for multimedia content playback, stronger demand for HD content, online game and faster bandwidth thus arises.
Intel has unveiled its new Centrino platform, Centrino 2, for NB PC on July 15. This platform is a composite of a 45nm-made Penryn CPU, 45-series Northbridge chipset and a WiFi Link 5000-series wireless solution. Noted that Centrino 2 is a new “brandname” of Centrino platform. Under this new brand, consumer version is named as Centrino 2 and business version as Centrino 2 vPro.
The Penryn CPU supports a faster FSB speed of 1066MHz on a lower reduction of 30% and power consumption of 25v only. Whereas for the new chipset, Intel enables consumers to have a certain degree of flexibility as the new chipset supports both integrated and discrete graphics core. When graphics execution is required, a shift from integrated to discrete graphics core will bring a stronger 3D graphics computer performance. Built on an 802.11 draft-N protocol standard, the WiFi Link 500-series delivers a maximum data transfer rate of 450Mbps, representing a 5x jump in speed as compare with 802.11a/g standard. Scope of coverage has been also doubled.
The new Centrino platform signifies that high-end NBs are now as competitive as DT PC in terms of performance. This explains why the DT-NB replacement demand is spreading across to high-end segment and promises a consistent industry NB industry growth over the coming next few years. Despite global economy is slowing down on heavy inflation pressure, NB vendors, who strive to boost sales via imitating price cuts, have narrowed down the cost/performance value gap between DT and NB. Consumers thus enjoy stronger motivation to buy NB on one hand and less motivated to buy DT on the other hand. Shipments trend of NB and DT in 2008 should justify the statement. DT shipments growth is expected to swing from positive to negative in 2008, while NB shipments are expected to deliver a 25% YoY growth.
While NB is gaining mainstream role in the PC market, launch of various low-cost NB is also suppressing DT sales. Many leading vendors have joined the league to produce low-cost NB after seeing rival Asustek introduced its Eee PC in 4Q07. And that the launch of Centrino 2, which feed demand from all segments, implies that DT market should lack of a powerful catalyst to expand further if there is no new application emerges.
dramexchange.com |
