Puncho - Re: "Do you think someone who is currently not holding INTC should consider the DEC lawsuit a "non-issue" (i.e., the probability of it having a negative effect on the stock being small - less than
10%) when considering to invest in INTC? "
It is an issue, and any investor should study the subject and decide for himself if it presents a negative risk factor - due diligence. My opinion is that it will not impact Intel negatively - they didn't steal anything/copy anything that wasn't already in the public domain.
Further, the time required to resolve the issue will be long - as long as Intel wants it to be. They know the ropes of patent litigation. By the time its resolved, the matter will be irrelevant.
That brings DEC's motives into play. What they wish to accomplish will have to be "revealed" quite soon or they will become increasingly irrelevant in the computational field. They can't survive on Alpha technology alone.
Re: "How do you like the market today? How far down (or up) do you think we will go? I know this is not your area of expertise. I doubt there are any experts in this area"
I don't like it, to put it mildly.
The "Market" is driven by two things - Greed and Fear.
In the last few days, FEAR has taken over and controlled the flow of money and Market Psychology
Fear of a Technology Slow Down - Intel forcasted "only slight" Q4 growth.
Fear of PC technology being reduced to commodity pricing across the spectrum - Sub $1000 PCs are the "big game" and Cyrix/AMD will eat Intel's Lunch - driving EVERYBODY into bankruptcy.
Fear of a Semi-Equipment slowdown.
Fear of a trade war with Japan with won't happen
Fear of non-existing inflation
Fear of Shadows
Fear of Interest Rate Hikes that probably would have minimal economic impact- just like the last hike in the spring.
Fear of a man named Greenspan
Fear of Tomorrow
Fear of Fear Itself
Fear that the Good Times Are Over, that the Easy Money is gone.
Fear by Money Managers that they may have to get a Real Job and do REAL work.
How long this lasts or how deep it goes, I haven't a clue.
What I do know is that once the FEAR element is played out, reality will settle back in. Businesses will build products and try to sell them to customers.
Kids will grow up and need new shoes.
People will get hungry and shop for food.
Somebody clever will start a new business and eventually will provide 10,000 new jobs for people.
Technology will continue its inevitable march, becoming more pervasive in all our lives, increasing the quality of those lives.
Eventually, FEAR will drive the meak and timid out of the market.
People with confidence and the ability to sustain personal risk will get a little greedy and began to look for a way to make a fast buck.
Life will return to normal for a while - until the FEAR cycle starts over again.
Paul |
