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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: E_K_S who wrote (31693)8/2/2008 11:59:59 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) of 78717
 
Okay, regarding Bakken. Here are a few comments relating to my and your picks:

My overarching idea: I want to have several stocks - a package of positions - in several of the now promising shale plays. Some large stocks - XCO, for example, are involved in several shale plays. Some of the smaller firms are in just one. Some of the companies have earnings, some do not. They are not all value picks. Although I've placed most of my bets on the exploration companies, I also have bet on the suppliers and transporters. Such as HAL for horizontal drilling, BWP for pipelines.

Regarding just Bakken and the stocks you mentioned, I hold ENB also. I see now according to its website, ENB says they will, or hope to, benefit from the Bakken development. You've mentioned Mr. Buffett's the BNSF (BNI). Positive article in today's Barron's on railroaders - several mentioned favorably including BNI. I missed BNI. I have just a few shares of CNI. "Its roughly 20,000 miles of track spans Canada and mid-America, connecting three coasts: Halifax on the Atlantic, Prince Rupert on the Pacific and cities on the Gulf of Mexico. By purchasing several short-line rails, CNI has gained access to better serve the tantalizing Alberta oil sands region."

As regards, "Who are the aggregators and pipeline operators that will benefit from the huge volume of natural gas that needs to be moved and distributed to the end users? I want to stay away from MLPs if possible.", my favorite by far is MDU.
MDU supplies electricity, cement, construction expertise, pipelines. And they have a subsidiary - Fidelity Exploration & Production Company - which is active in the Bakken. (I'm not a buyer of MDU here at current price. And just because it's my favorite, doesn't mean I have an overly large position in the stock. Often my favorites going in, turn out to be my worst performers.) MDU is classified as a utility, so I don't expect a lot from it. I expect it'll be okay for me though.

Crescent Point I also like. That Canadian trust has Bakken exposure and is increasing it's build out, and has also increased its dividend. (.23/sh is about $2.34 annualized after the 15% Canadian withholding on a stock going for $34.23.) Not a great yield, but that's the offset I presume for an investor/speculator buying into the trust's possibly very good Bakken future:

crescentpointenergy.com

Worth it to me anyway to take the dividend and hold on to see what happens to their Bakken holdings.

Here is a list (in no particular order) of stocks that I classify as my package of Bakken-Williston oil/gas stocks. I have shares in each company in this list. In varying $$ amounts. (Fewer $$ bet on the smaller stuff.):

finance.yahoo.com

The volatility of these oil stocks is something to behold and experience. =g=
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