The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (138905)	8/4/2008 11:15:30 AM
From: butschi2	Read Replies (1) of 306849

Firste Wave: Subprime Second wave: second liens and ALT / options ARMs third Wave: commercial real estate/LBOs going down fourth wave: prime uptick on defaults from nearly zero in 2006 to around 3-5%. Fifth wave: credit-card debt/auto loans/commercial loans imploding Sixth wave: muni defaults exploding and no insurers left ;) Seventh wave: T-Bills loosing value due to inflation .... stock marketets crashing / GM/Chrysler/Ford having problems .... All in all a long way to go until all risks are priced in for the balance sheets of banks. Especially the big banks like C have huge and opaque balance sheets and will have more hits to their balance sheet if europe goes into recession and ROW growth slows down sharply. Until now the big hits could be deferred, but the money for rescues runs dry. Many retailers are imploding and jobs losses from retail should mount sharply, depressing CRE(shopping) values and another hit for the banks from retailers and CRE-REITS. The most damage in jobs and BK´s from firms will happen just after the recession is ended! Therefore losses will mount for the forseable future 12-18 month or perhaps even 24 month. And a CDS/derivatives armageddon could happen in the meantime or not.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next