NCs will miss best chance at success, report says
By Ron Condon
InfoWorld Electric
Posted at 2:05 PM PT, Oct 17, 1997
Network Computers will miss their best chance of being widely adopted as a PC alternative, according to a new report published by London-based research company Ovum Ltd.
"The NC and Java will miss the next two-year window, and this will affect [their] long-term fate," said Katy Ring, co-author of the report, Network Computers: Risk & Rewards for Business.
Based on interviews with 70 large U.K. and U.S. corporations, the report found that users agree the PC is an overspecified device but showed little desire to shift from Microsoft Windows platform as the chosen client operating system.
"They were a bit worried about Microsoft's monopoly position," Ring said, "But there was an apathetic response to Java. The majority of them didn't know it had anything to do with the NC."
An enormous amount of new system development is taking place around the world to overcome the year-2000 problem, and in Europe to accommodate the introduction of a single European currency. But there is still no agreed specification for the NC, and Java is still seen by users as too immature, the report noted.
The Windows Terminal is likely to become the dominant thin client, the report forecasted. Using software such as Winframe from Citrix Systems, users will be able to manage their networks from large Windows NT-based servers, and will also be able to recycle old PCs. In turn, that trend will strengthen the position of Microsoft and NT in the server market.
NC proponents are making a mistake by using the total cost of ownership (TCO) as their main selling-point.
"Users said the thin client has to provide a better solution, as well as being cheaper," said Jean Leston, who co-authored the report. "If you put TCO first, it's the tail wagging the dog."
Most users are still smarting from the hidden costs of client/server computing, and do not want to fly to yet another system architecture that may also have unforeseen costs, Leston said.
"They don't want to be conned again."
A white paper on the subject can be found at ovum.com. |
