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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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From: ChanceIs8/5/2008 4:28:15 PM
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This is one of the most violent PTEN sell-offs I have seen. About 33% down since early July. We had a 33% drop from the post KatRita high in Mid Jan '06 to a bottom in early March. In 2001, PTEN had about a 60% decline from March to early July.

I think that they all stemmed from exaggerated highs.

In 2001, we had the California energy crisis - $10 NG - pump up and blow off. A recession also started then, and we had a cool summer.

In 2006 we had the KatRita boost, and then the first ever NG injection in early Jan.

This time around we have had a big run up in crude. NG had a strong spike. However there is a very solid base at $8. Given the steepness of the drop in NG, I would suppose that we would test that. I think that $8 NG is a very strong price historically. That should support a lot of drilling.

I suppose that this week we are not only seeing unwinding of long positions, but aggressive shorting as well.

Can I pick a bottom??? Of course not. Given previous blow offs, I would say that we are near. Funny to see a stock drop so much when the DOW is up 300 points. It isn't as if PTEN is having bad earnings. Far from it. It crashed its 200 day line pretty hard today.

I suppose that a bottom is close. Probably a bounce then perhaps lower. It will have to wallow sideways for six months given all of the technical damage.
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