How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 479.20

+0.2%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ibexx who wrote (3444)	10/18/1997 5:33:00 AM
From: Gary105	of 74651

I hope I am wrong but I believe MSFT price will fall continuing the theme of wringing out excessive valuations in tech stocks and ultimately creating excellent buying opportunities. I sold my MSFT holdings. Whats behind my reasoning? 1. TA - msfts high was unconfirmed by its MACD creating divergence (a warning signal). Then theres the unfilled gap at 100 (just like intel had unfilled gap at 80) 2. Fundamentals - msft once traded at "lofty" p/e of 30, now its at 50. 50% eps growth is not sustainable in a company this large, we may soon see less robust growth comparisons - perhaps in Q3 and Q4 of this FY - and they hint about it in this upcoming report - with no wink this time. 3. CFO has issued his warning about valuation. 4. The thread is optimistic - just like intc's thread was b4 earnings - they even attacked analysts they didnt like. In summary, great company but excessive valuation, unless earnings are a blowaway and there is no hint of future slowdown, the market will take it down just like the other techs. Possible downside of upper 90s or 100 filling gap. Again, I hope I am wrong. Imo, Gary

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