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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold & Gold Stock Analysis

GLD 368.29

+0.6%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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From: jimsioi	8/6/2008 8:46:50 PM
	Read Replies (1) of 29622

$CRB Index...hate to get bearish but this is ugly. The commodity bull trend may not be broken but it is very much damaged. Given the severity of the decline I see less probability of a quick resolution or a "V" bottom playing out...Only a sudden drop in the dollar back to 72 would allow for that, and some of the commodities, have shifted fundamentals - notably in the grains...Whether or not the fundamentals have changed for oil and its products, I think is up for debate; I am hoping for a hold of $115. CRB stockcharts.com that all said, one sees some pretty low trend indicators among the commodities, notably grains, energy and metals, while the USD trend indicator is near the peaking levels. The S&P is rising with less than inspiring momentum.. chartingyourfutures.com Generally raising some cash on rallies as I think gold and silver go lower and resource stocks generally don't put on much of a show other than one day rallies such as today's. I think there is a deflationary effect coming out of all these capital write offs the banks are doing. Hedge funds are having to raise their ratios. The US government may be printing money but much of it is being exchanged for worthless morgage paper, not getting into the economy so as to have the sustained inflationary effect one would otherwise expect... Given that's my feeling watch us rally tomorrow...The big play will be in GOLD and Silver once the dollar crests and begins what should be its rightful fall from favor....someday. cheers, jim101

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