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Strategies & Market Trends : The Swamp
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To: SwampDogg who wrote (311)8/6/2008 10:37:47 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) of 491
 
(edit) Hard to say any set level on the HUI as I look at many variables, but with gold I'd say if 950 was hit again I'd say odds were decent that the bottom is in right now.

Of course I can't prove that this is a top of more importance than others, but neither can you disprove it. I'll try to lay out a better case when I have time on why I think it's possible or maybe more than an odds on bet.

Again I'm operating under a simple set of ST premises here.

1) Major golds stocks as a group are broken ST. Many still need to resolve a bit lower at the minimum (10%) per weekly charts (TA, not EW).

2) Almost every PM bottom like the current one ends where gold declines rapidly and stocks fail to go down further (starting to happen w/small caps - not there yet w/big caps). There's been no test w/the big caps yet. At a min we need to see how they act w/a down $15-20 day.

3) The Euro looks like it's going into an IT correction here. Should lead the Dollar higher. Again Dollar not great FA wise, but Euro is potentially worse ST.

4) Oil is not yet at an important IT bottom nor has gold/gold stocks shown any real ability during the last year to go counter during a big down swoon.

5) The global economy may not go into recession, but it's likely to cool further further hitting CRB/Oil - again linkage w/gold at least until most of the leveraged commodity hedge funds are unwound.

6) The busting of the credit bubble is very, very deflationary - not inflationary especially not at the onset.

Ok, what are your assumptions layed out in similar fashion?

BTW we've done a good job at keeping this constructive thus far. Let's keep it that way.
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