The Swamp Message Board - Msg: 24827427

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Swamp

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (316)	8/7/2008 8:12:18 AM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (3) of 491

Gold is in a bull market and that is all that I concern myself with. FWIW if the world went into a bigger slowdown monetary policy would become looser and real interest rates would even go lower which is the fuel for all bull markets in gold Real interest rates are even lower now than they were in 2001-2002 which was the fuel for the initial run in gold. IMO the buck will be much lower in 2009 and may start lower soon. We have seen a few of these deflation scares over this commodity bull and this one looks no different. Deflation will hit at some point but not until the buck is half of what it is now. This commodity bull will not go into a large correction until the bears stop jumping on it after every little wiggle. It is always a sign that we are in good shape. IMO this sharp reaction may be like the tech market had in 1998 before the real fun started. It may be like 1994 with much further to run but one should expect a very very strong commodity market over the next 6 months either way. IMO something will be blamed for the run in commodities coming. Weather or something else....it is always that way.

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