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Strategies & Market Trends : The Swamp
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To: SwampDogg who wrote (319)8/7/2008 8:36:25 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) of 491
 
>> Gold is in a bull market and that is all that I concern myself with. <<

Many investors thought the same when gold cleared $1,000 for the first time. They bought juniors and held. I was guilty as well, but I learned. Those that say that gold is in a bull market and don't concern themselves w/much more are generally heavy underwater at this pt. I'm not doubting the LT bull in gold. I'm merely saying after 8 years a longer/deeper break (or even an average break ala 2006) is the most likely scenario especially w/the other factors I've outlined.

>> FWIW if the world went into a bigger slowdown monetary policy would become looser and real interest rates would even go lower which is the fuel for all bull markets in gold Real interest rates are even lower now than they were in 2001-2002 which was the fuel for the initial run in gold. <<

Interest rates matter, but so does the overall money supply which is actually contracting right now.

>> We have seen a few of these deflation scares over this commodity bull and this one looks no different. <<

Looking at the $BKX and what is happening there this one DOES look different.

>> IMO this sharp reaction may be like the tech market had in 1998 before the real fun started. <<

That's one possibility especially if gold holds here.

At this pt I think I've said what I need to say. I need a time-out as all this posting is too time intensive for what I get back. I do appreciate the debate, but it appears we're talking at each other vs to each other too often.
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