@Rink
Something is wired, on one side, "all" players look for
further new kind of technologies to go beyond Floating Gate,
but on the other side, PCM in its actual form is 2-4x times
as large compared to existing SPSN NOR designs. We know, there
is still some gap between NAND and NOR too, so if these
NAND guys switch sometimes to PCM (I have extremly high
doubts), they will instantly rise the bar (cell size) by at
least 2-3X -> very conservative. With that, they will need
around 2 newer nodes for PCM to get parity to existing "old"
nodes. Doesn't seem a much likely switch to me at this point.
As said a dozen times, the NAND guys will enter a tough rode.
They could switch 100% to 3x/4x nm in the next months, which will
buy them Mbit growth YoY, but what comes next? Especially
if we look into the financial situation. Who should buy all
these very expansive machines with margins in negative terr.?
It has to be seen, what 2009 will bring to this sector, at
least I'm assuming now, that YoY Mbit growth will slow by a
huge margin which is only healthy and the only way to go.
In the meantime, we could wait and see, what Numonyx could
bring with PCM on the table, we haven't seen that much. And
what we have seen was VERY BORING!
BUGGI |
